By Ted Sevransky

If I’m watching a game with a group of friends, I won’t have a pen and paper, or my laptop in front of me, taking notes. Otherwise, every game that I watch is an exercise in gaining information. Try not to concentrate on the games that you are betting, as kooky as that sounds. It’s harder to focus on the things that matter long term (the real ability of the teams) – instead, you’re just worrying about the score. (Score, now stop them from scoring)! I’ll try to focus more on the games on which I don’t have action. There’s less of an emotional involvement in those games, and the astute observer can gain more information.

Football games are won and lost on the line of scrimmage. Try watching the offensive and defensive lines, not the quarterback dropping back to pass or the running back finding holes. Some offensive lines are capable of protecting the QB, and/or blowing holes open for the RB. Some defensive lines put pressure on the QB on a steady basis, and blow up running plays in the backfield. Is the D creating pressure with their front four, or do they need blitzers to get to the QB? Is the quarterback throwing without a lick of pressure? Is the running back gaining four yards before he gets touched? In the NFL this year, the best offensive lines are on Minnesota, Denver and Kansas City. No surprise then, that those three teams are a combined 11-1 against the spread in the first four weeks of the season. The best defensive lines are on Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Indianapolis. Discounting the one game in which Carolina and Tampa Bay played each other, those three teams are 7-1 ATS. Identifying teams with strong offensive and defensive lines early in the season can make you a nice little profit!

Look for big play type players. Teams that can move the ball consistently, but rarely try for and make big plays are much more likely to get bogged down on offense, settling for field goals instead of touchdowns. They’ll have good offensive stats in most areas, but not in the all important ‘yards per point’ category. Likewise, there are many defenses that give up tons of yards, but get tougher as their opponents get into the red zone. Big play players – gamebreakers, I like to call them, are of the utmost importance. They can come on either side of the football, even on special teams – Dante Hall of the Chiefs is a prime example. There is a huge difference between a Marvin Harrison of the Colts, a catch and run master, vs. a Keyshawn Johnson of the Bucs, for whom ‘catch and fall’ is a better description. In colleges, teams that can score on offense, defense, and special teams are far superior to those who can’t. Think Ole Miss vs. Oregon for a prime example, teams with comparable offensive capabilities, but completely different capabilities when it comes to defensive and special teams scoring. Getting easy touchdowns is one more key to winning!

Pay plenty of attention to the quarterbacks. How comfortable is the QB? Is he a good fit for the system he is running? Is he trying to force the ball into one receiver, or is he capable of reading his progressions? Does he throw the ball to the right team? Peyton Manning has great stats, but his interceptions killed the Colts for the last couple of years. In 2003, he finally looks comfortable in the pocket, isn’t trying to force the ball to Marvin Harrison, and suddenly Indianapolis is a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Know the ability of the young quarterbacks and the backups. Byron Leftwich was capable of making his first start in the NFL on the road; Kyle Boller was not. Last year, Henry Burress and Randy Fasani were bottom of the barrel in the NFL, unable to do anything, and that was obvious from the first snap that they took. Backup Gus Frerotte threw four touchdown passes for the Vikings last week. Backup Vinnie Testaverde has led the Jets to an 0-4 start. Preseason and garbage time are the best opportunities to see the backups play – extra attention during those periods will pay dividends down the line.

Look for ‘smart’ teams, the stuff that doesn’t show up in the box scores. Do they make stupid mistakes at crucial points of the game – penalties, missed assignments? The Saints collapsed down the stretch in 2002 because of those very issues, playing ‘dumb’ football. On the other hand, the disciplined teams tend to do better and better as the season progresses – there’s a reason that the Cowboys went 5-11 in each of the last three years, but have a winning record with the exact same talent under Bill Parcells. Look for those ‘bet-on’ and ‘bet-against’ coaches and coordinators. John Shoop of the Bears and Paul Hackett of the Jets get criticized each week for a reason – their play calling doesn’t maximize their chances of getting touchdowns. Mike Shanahan calls the plays for the Broncos, and rarely faces such criticism.

Look for quality special teams play. A good punter can practically cover a spread by himself, pinning his opponent deep, and winning the field position war. Jeff Feagles did just that for me last year with the Seahawks against the Giants – he’s on the Giants this season, ironically. Feagles pinned the Giants deep on numerous occasions, leaving New York with a long field to traverse just to get into field goal range. Similarly, a good kicker can take his team all the way to the Super Bowl – just ask Adam Vinatieri of the Patriots. Good special teams = good field position, and field position is a secret, hidden, key factor to winning football wagers. And don’t forget those big play returners, like the Dante Hall example above.

Watch as many games as you can, even for a few minutes. I’ll be focused on a few games during each time period (early games, midday games, late games), but try to check in on as many others as I can. Even watching three or for possessions (watch whole possessions!) can really help turn the box score numbers into something tangible. There is no reason not to have seen possessions in 15-20 college games on a given Saturday, and 8-10 on an NFL Sunday. I’m not a taper and watcher – I need the drama to hold my interest, but some prefer that unencumbered format. Never ignore the opportunity to watch teams that you haven’t seen before, especially from smaller conferences. The Mountain West, MAC, WAC etc all have televised games each week. For goodness sakes, if you don’t have a dish, get one, and spend the $$ to get the complete football package!

Last, but not least, in the both college and the NFL, I’m looking for teams that consistently play well after halftime. Some teams and some coaches are masters at making halftime adjustments, others seem to wilt under the pressure more often than not. Remember, if you can handicap the 4th quarter correctly prior to kickoff, you are well on your way to cashing the majority of your tickets…

Source: www.whocovers.com