By
Ted Sevransky
Most sports
bettors are well versed in the intricacies of betting
on sides and totals before
the game
starts. But any bettor looking to maximize his
or her profits needs to have the ability and flexibility
to
successfully
navigate through the course of the entire game.
Which means, of course, that halftime wagering is
a key element
of the
successful handicappers arsenal. This includes
both games that were bet on from the beginning as
well as
games
that were not bet on before the game started. An
astute halftime
bettor can use a wager at the half to fulfill all
kinds of useful functions. What follows is a brief
primer
on how the halftime bet can be used, how it can
be extremely
profitable, and what things to look for when making
a halftime bet. Please put your thinking caps on
for this
one
article is somewhat complicated, but understanding
and using what is contained herein can increase
your sports
betting profits dramatically.
What a Halftime Line Is, and Why it exists
If you've gotten this far, you are familiar with the
concept of pointspreads and betting lines, the standard
basis for sports wagering around the world. Over the
past five years, the popularity of additional wagering
possibilities other than the standard side and total
for the complete game have become increasingly popular,
both among bettors and sportsbooks. One of these options
is betting on games at halftime, after the first half
has been played. The books offer a line based entirely
on action that occurs in the 2nd half. Numerous examples
will follow, but the reader should be able to understand
the concept that halftime lines are not for the entire
game only the action that occurs after halftime will
count for their wager.
Books offer this betting opportunity to bettors for
a number of different reasons. The primary reason, of
course, is to get more action. Since bettors must lay
11-10 on standard halftime bets, much the same way they
do on full game wagers, sportsbooks have a built in 4.5%
advantage. The more action they can create, the better
off that they are, because sportsbooks make most of their
profit through sheer volume. Increasing volume is the
goal of any sportsbook director. But that isn't the only
factor that encourages books to post this halftime number
for bettors to wager upon. Sportsbooks theoretically
desire balanced action on games to ensure their profit.
But in reality, most games don't have spilt action, with
equal money on both sides so that the bookmakers profit
is ensured. Rather, they have too much liability on one
side or the other, meaning a nice profit if the bettors
lose, but a big loss if the side the bettors have wins.
So, sportsbooks use the halftime line as a way to hedge
their own potential losses when they don't get balanced
action.
Figuring Out what the Halftime Line Really Means - Adjusting
the Line
Suppose the line for a game between the Dallas Mavericks
and the San Antonio Spurs is Spurs -8. Then suppose that
the Mavs lead by 6 at the half, and the halftime line
is Spurs -7. What this halftime line really means is
that the Spurs are now laying only 1 for the game, instead
of the 8 that they were laying before tip-off. This number
is called " The Adjusted Halftime Line" as
you look at the numbers to compare the halftime numbers
with the original numbers. A second example. The Washington
Redskins are playing the Dallas Cowboys, with a line
of Washington -6 and a total of 38.5 The score at the
half is Redskins 20, Cowboys 14. The halftime line comes
out at pick 'em, with a total of 20. The adjusted halftime
number for the side is no different from the original
number of -6. But the adjusted halftime total is now
54, up from the original number of 38.5. And Over/Under
selection at the half will be using 54 as a benchmark.
With the score already 20-14, meaning 34 points have
already been scored, an Over wager at the half will need
more than 54 points to cash the ticket, while an Under
bet requires less than 54 points for the game to be worth
a darn. It's important to note the added value in an
Under bet here. It's far better than a teaser that gives
an additional 6 to 7 points while decreasing the resulting
payback dramatically. In this case, you've got to watch
the first half for free - you have an idea of how well
or poorly these two teams are playing. Plus, instead
of a measly six or seven points, with a wager on the
Under at the half, you are getting an additional 15.5
points (between 38.5 and 54), all for the standard 11-10
ratio, not the lousy odds (12-10 on a two teamer) that
you receive on teaser bets. Now that can be an extremely
profitable difference!!
Hedging and Middling Opportunities
The single most useful function of halftime betting
is the ability to hedge your initial bet with the possibility
of winning both wagers. For those unfamiliar with the
concepts involved, let's do some brief definition work
here. To 'hedge' a bet means to take a position contrary
to your initial wager in order to limit your risk and
potentially maximize your profit. The function of this
is to lock in some profit when the outcome of the game
is still a question mark, or, if you don't like the direction
that the game is headed, you can 'lay off' some or all
of your bet while the game is already in progress. You
can view hedging as a form of bettors insurance - it
costs you something, but it increases 'Middling' opportunities
to win with bets on both sides in the same game, with
no risk involved whatsoever, a bookies nightmare. A middling
opportunity minimizes risk while maximizing potential
profit, what every bettor dreams of.
Let's use a concrete example to illustrate the point.
Suppose you had bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home
against the Detroit Lions for the game at -4. At the
half, the Bucs are winning 20-3, and the halftime line
comes Detroit -2.5. You are presented with some real
options in this situation. If you don't necessarily like
the Bucs chances despite their big lead, now is the time
to come back with a bet on Detroit for the 2nd half.
Should the Lions get pounded in the 2nd half, you'll
push for the day, winning the original bet on Tampa,
but losing the halftime bet on the Lions. Thus, you will
have turned your original winning bet into a push, the
worst possible scenario in this example. If the Lions
are able to mount a comeback in the 2nd half and lose
only, say 23-20, then your halftime wager will have served
a very useful function. Instead of losing your original
bet with no relief in sight, with a halftime bet, you'll
end up pushing, losing only the juice on one of the two
bets. The best scenario involves a fairly common occurrence.
Tampa is up 20-3 at the half, but Detroit rallies back,
only to lose by a TD, 28-21. Not only were you able to
watch the 2nd half risk free; you were also able to win
a bet on the Bucs and the Lions in the same game. Tampa
covered the -4 for the game, while the Lions covered
the -2.5 for the 2nd half. You had no risk, and you won
bets on both sides in the same game. This coveted middle
opportunity is the key to any halftime handicapping strategy.
Doubling Up on your Initial Wager
There are numerous other possibilities with a halftime
wager besides simply hedging your original bet or looking
for a middling opportunity. One such possibility is increasing
or doubling up the size of your original wager. Let's
say you have the Knicks -7 over the Nets and New York
is winning 49-45 at the half, with the halftime line
coming at New York -3. There are no middling possibilities
here, that's for sure, because the adjusted halftime
line is still -7. They are winning by 4, and the halftime
line is -3, meaning the Knicks will have to win by 7
to cover the halftime bet, the same as the original line.
But let's say that you were watching the game and you
think that the Nets were extremely lucky to still be
in it. After watching the first half, you still like
the Knicks, perhaps even more than you did before tip-off.
Now you can make an additional bet at the half on New
York. You can increase the size of your bet, with the
added knowledge of having seen the first half!
Disadvantages and Pitfalls of Halftime Betting
Limited Time, line shopping, and the ability to think
clearly while the game is in progress are three major
difficulties bettors have to overcome when beginning
to bet at halftime. There certainly isn't much time to
think about it. In football, a 'capper can spend all
week thinking about a particular game; in basketball,
a 'capper usually spends much of the day making the decision
about which sides and totals to back with a wager. But
halftime lasts only fifteen minutes, and it generally
takes the linesmakers a minute or two to set the line
and make it available for the betting public. Which only
gives the bettor a window of ten or twelve minutes to
make a decision, shop for the best line and plunk down
the cash for a wager. Clearly, bettors must think about
halftime possibilities before the half ends. Also, bettors
are often unable to think clearly when under the gun
to make a decision. For those of you who do not have
a clear head while the game is in progress, halftime
betting is probably not a good option. And just as in
regular wagering, it is crucial to search for the best
line, as line variances can be dramatic from book to
book. With only one half of the game to settle all bets,
a half point here and there can take on even more importance
than for a full game wager, because there's less time
to make up the difference.
An intelligent bettor should be able to avoid the pitfalls
with experience. For beginning halftime bettors, I would
strongly recommend that you keep your wager size below
that of your normal standard wager. There is a steep
learning curve, and not much time to make decisions.
Once you have become more proficient and you begin to
win at halftime betting on a regular basis, you can increase
the size of your bets. Some 'cappers are even willing
to risk far more on a halftime bet than they would on
a wager for the whole game! Try to keep these guidelines
in mind as you get more involved with halftime wagering.
Source: www.whocovers.com