As a baseball flies through the
air, the air pushes back against it, resisting its motion
and
decreasing the distance the ball travels. If you don't
believe air can provide much resistance, stick your arm
out of a car window at 60 mph and feel the push. The
density of air is different from place-to-place and from
day-to-day
depending on temperature, humidity and air pressure..
In thin (or low density) air a ball can travel faster
and
farther because there's less air resistance. Let's breakdown
the baseball importance of these atmospheric variables:
1. Pressure. Air under low pressure is less dense, or
thinner, than air under high pressure. This is the main
reason long balls carry farther in Denver-the atmospheric
pressure at that altitude is always about 15% less than
sea level pressures. A hit that would have flown 400
ft at sea level would carry to 430 ft in the thin air
of Coors Stadium. This permanent effect of Denver's high
altitude is duly noted by the oddsmakers, however, resulting
in totals typically in the 12-14 range, reducing the
opportunity to simply bet OVERS and win most of the time.
The day to day pressure changes of the atmosphere, however,
are not considered by the oddsmakers, but these daily
pressure differences at stadiums caused by the meanderings
of the high and low pressures depicted on weather charts
are very small. On a low pressure day the pressure is
only one or two per cent lower than on a normal day,
so a 400 ft shot would only carry a whopping 402 ft!
Obviously this effect is too small to worry about, especially
since there are other atmospheric factors that actually
make a big difference-read on!
2. Humidity. Air with high humidity is less dense, or
thinner, than dry air. But this effect so slight it
would only account for a long ball traveling a few inches
farther on a humid day. There is, however, a significant
and unexpected effect of humidity. According to Professor
Robert Adair, the dean of baseball physicists, a baseball
in a humid environment is actually heavier and less elastic
than a dry ball, and, therefore, cannot be hit as far.
The exact amount of this effect can only be determined
experimentally, but, based on the data we've seen, we
estimate a 400 ft shot on a day with average humidity
would carry 415 ft on a very dry day with low humidity.
3. Temperature. Warm air is less dense,
or thinner, than cold air. A would-be 400ft shot at 75
degrees
would
carry 408ft at 95 degrees.
4. Wind. Air moving along in the same direction the
ball is flying pushes back less on the ball, allowing
it to travel farther. In fact, the wind is very often
the single most important thing to consider about the
weather when betting baseball totals. A 400ft shot in
calm conditions would turn into a 445ft blast with a
15 mph wind directed out to center field. So you can
see on many occasions wind is more important even than
the altitude in determining the total runs scored in
baseball games.
Source: www.Sportsweatherpage.com