By Ted Sevransky
This is a boring topic, but it addresses
an issue that every single sports bettor MUST be concerned
with. If you consider sports betting an investment
and I do there has to be a method of gauging how successful
your investment is. The only method that makes sense
is
accurately tracking your results. Bettors that stick
their head in the sand will never really know how well
or poorly
they are doing. Nor will they realize which types of
bets they are most successful with, and with that information
capitalize on the opportunities that it presents. Simulated
sportsbook sites like Wagerline.com and Bigguy.com are
not an acceptable substitute for record keeping - they
don't let you enter your own line, they only allow limited
bet sizes, and they don't allow for any wagers except
straight
bets on sides and totals. To be able to really gain value
from your own record keeping, it must be done accurately
each and every time track each and every wager you
make no exceptions.
There are basic categories of wagers to track. I keep
results of all my bets: straight bets, halftime bets,
money line bets, bets on totals, parlays and teasers.
This information lets me know whether I am winning or
losing at each individual type of wager. Halfway through
the '98 season, I realized that I was losing money regularly
on my halftime bets and my parlays. Armed with that information,
I simply eliminated those wagers from my betting routine,
and the results were dramatic a bigger return on my
investment. Last year, I began to bet the halftimes again
with some success, but have still kept the parlays (money
losers for me) out of my betting arsenal.
Find out what kinds of bets you are successful with,
and stick to them. Either lower your units for those
types of bets you are least successful with, or eliminate
them altogether, and play them on paper only until your
success rate improves. This is basic common sense, yet
many bettors fail to keep even the simplest kind of records
- wins and losses.
But, there is much to keep track of besides basic wins
and losses. It is very important to break down your information
into numerous different categories to find areas of strength
and weakness. Our ultimate spreadsheet does what I have
been doing for years it breaks down your wagers into
many categories. Are you betting way too many home favorites,
while your success rate on road dogs is much better?
Are you winning those bets when you are taking double
digits, but losing when you are backing shorter dogs?
Last October, I found that I was 17-4 betting home fav's
in college. The last few weeks, I looked for more plays
on home favorites my leans became bets, and my bets
became bigger bets. I didn't hit 80% any more, but I
still hit over 60% on these types of bets … with
many more plays and more money on each one. This is but
one example of how this type of information can help
you bet better.
I also look at my results betting on or against each
team. Bettors usually have good reads on many teams -
but certainly not all of them. When you analyze how you
are doing wagering by team, again, after a few weeks
you may be surprised. In November of '99 I found that
I was 5-1 betting on or against the Chargers, while I
was only 1-4 while betting on or against the Lions. So,
down the stretch, I made plays in almost every Charger
game - my leans became bets, and my success with that
team continued. Meanwhile, I laid off the Lions games
(except one, and I wish I had laid off that one too),
and saved money in the process. Identifying teams on
which you have a good 'read' on, vs. those which you
don't is another key element of record keeping.
Let your record speak for itself. Real, accurate results
don't lie. Take a few minutes each week to track all
your wagers, either with Whocovers Handicapper's Ultimate
Spreadsheet, or by any other tool you wish to use. The
first few weeks, there won't be many patterns, but you'll
at least see what types of bets are winning you money
and which types are costing you profit. By the 2nd half
of the season, you'll be able to accurately gauge how
well you are doing in all kinds of pointspread situations,
and how well you are doing by team. This will allow you
to maximize your profits for the 2nd half of the season,
and keep your investment growing year after year.
One note about Whocovers Handicapper's Ultimate Spreadsheet.
The data you enter is 100% confidential, available for
your eyes only, even our webmaster or an IRS subpoena
can't drag it out into the open. So, you can feel confident
using this powerful tool, knowing that your information
is well protected. The spreadsheet itself has presented
a few programming difficulties with its automation. Temporarily,
halftime bets, parlays and teasers are unable to be automatically
updated this problem should be solved within a fairly
short period of time. In the meantime, I would recommend
that you track these types of wagers by hand you need
to know if they are producing long term profits.
Source: www.whocovers.com