By Bryan Leonard

In this day and age of NBA basketball, players can’t shoot. During the 1980’s, teams regularly played 124-114 type games and NBA totals were set much higher. In the 1986 NBA Finals, the totals for the six games between Houston and Boston were between 216 and 222. By contrast, the total in Game 1 of the 2002 Finals between Los Angeles and New Jersey was 190. For you non-math majors, that’s roughly a 30-point difference.

A combination of things has happened: an emphasis on defense, rule changes and younger players entering the NBA. During the 1980’s, coaches preferred a run-and-gun style relying on the fast-break. But as the 1990’s dawned, that philosophy changed as coaches copied the aggressive defenses by Chuck Daly’s Pistons and Pat Riley’s Knicks.

It’s rarer for teams to shoot above 50% nowadays and it’s one angle to utilize as a sports bettor. If a team shoots 55% or more from the field, they are a good go-against the next game: Teams are 57-101-1 against the spread since 1999 in that situation, and 17-27 ATS last season.

What’s happening is that offense is about “feel” as well as execution. Red Auerbach used to say that sometimes the ball doesn’t fall through the hoop and there’s nothing you can do – you can’t work harder, run harder, try harder to make the basketball fall through the iron. Defense is different. You can always work hard on defense. If some player isn’t trying hard on ‘D’, a coach can send in fresh bodies or guys who will play harder. But if all five guys lose their shooting touch, a coach can’t send in three guys off the bench who will be likely to start shooting better.

When teams shoot 55% from the field or better, the law of averages can catch up on them the next game and they can often shoot poorly. This happened early in the season when the Clippers shot lights out in a 101-82 blowout at Miami. The next game, the Clippers came home to play Orlando, but shot 39% in a 101-80 loss to the Magic.

On the last day of March, the Grizzlies shot over 55% in a 105-99 victory over Golden State, a team that played poor defense. But the next game, the Grizzlies shot 38% in a 107-83 blowout loss to Sacramento, a club that played strong defense. So when you examine NBA boxscores, pay attention to red-hot shooting clubs. Because there’s a chance they’ll go ice cold and provide a good ATS go-against the next game.

Source: www.CoversExperts.com