By Bryan Leonard

In college basketball, we know that there is often a big difference when teams play at home and on the road. Many teams look like world-beaters at home, and then go on the road the next game and look like a bunch of pre-schoolers. Last year Florida State pulled off a colossal upset of Duke (77-76 as a +16 home dog), and the next game got bombed 82-67 at NC State as a +8 road dog.

But another aspect in the world of sports wagering to keep an eye on is rematch situations. What can happen is that linemakers often look at the previous game the two teams played and read too much into that one game, while making a weak number on the rematch. This can provide a good spot to take the team off of the earlier loss.

For example, last year Duke flattened Maryland 99-78 as a 9-point home favorite in their first meeting. The ACC rivals met again at Maryland and Duke was a 2-point favorite. Maryland went 15-0 SU/8-2-1 ATS at home last season on the way to the national championship, yet here they were installed as a home dog. With the home crowd rocking, the Terrapins got the money and the win in an 87-73 rout of the Blue Devils.

Sometimes teams can have an off night shooting, while the opponent is simply red-hot. This is why watching games and carefully examining boxscores is essential. It’s important to note, for example, that if a team with good guards that normally averages 7 turnovers per game suddenly has 24 TOs in a loss, was it just a bad night? Or were the opponent’s guards that good defensively? The smart handicapper doesn’t read too much into one game, and it’s essential to dig deep to discover the reasons teams play as they do on any given night. Because when linemakers fail to do this, soft numbers can surface in the rematch.

Last season, Texas Tech got off to a hot start under first-year coach Bobby Knight. They were not a strong rebounding team, but preferred to run-and-gun opponents into the ground. In a meeting at home against Texas, the Red Raiders were a one-point home favorite, but lost 74-71 in OT. Texas was clearly the more talented team, shooting 50% to Texas Tech’s 38% in that game. But when the two met again later in the season, the linemakers had Texas as just a 4-point home favorite against a Texas Tech team that was 5-5 SU/4-6 ATS on the road. Texas had already beat Tech on the road, and now at home – with a soft line – the Longhorns won and covered the number easily in a 96-71 rout.

So make sure you do your homework before placing hard-earned money on a game. Because there are plenty of weak numbers out there, and the savvy bettor knows how to find the gold.

Source: www.CoversExperts.com