By Jeremy Martin

The NBA has long been known as one of the hardest sports for bettors to win money at. Since rosters are small and there are a manageable number of teams in the league, bookmakers have been releasing increasingly solid numbers year after year. It’s no secret that pro hoops is consistently one of the top money makers for the sportsbooks.

Even though the books make a good profit by taking NBA action, most managers will admit that they have one weak spot: NBA 'totals'. In fact, these managers will readily admit that they lose money every season booking NBA totals. While they make a killing with 'sides', which are popular with the general betting public, totals continue to be problem because they are a favorite of the professional bettors.

  “I am not saying every single game or every single circumstance, but over time there are definitely more weak totals numbers (in the NBA) than side numbers,” said Doug Beil, race & sportsbook manager for Terrible’s Hotel/Casino, who added that totals make up only 20 percent of his NBA handle. “The people who bet and handicap totals just spend more time and are better at it than maybe the casinos and the odds services are willing to admit.”

  Most sportsbook managers will agree that totals action makes up a small percentage of their total NBA handle. This can bee seen as a positive for the average bettor who is looking to gain an advantage in pro hoops. As long as the general public continues to stay away from totals, the books will continue to take the small losses in that area as long as they continue to profit on sides.

  “Sides get a lot more action (about triple),” said Rob Gillespie, president of BoDog Sportsbook & Casino. “For most bettors it is easier to handicap teams than totals. They know the players, they know the recent results, but knowing how a team does relative to the over/under requires more information than you can get from a mainstream sports site like ESPN or the USA Today.”

  While the numbers for sides are relatively stable, the numbers for totals tend to move more frequently. This instability is great for bettors, who can find a wide range of numbers on a particular game while gaining a chance to ‘middle’ the books in situations where a game’s line moves several points. According to Bob Scucci, race & sportsbook manager for the Stardust Resort & Casino, totals lines can move up to nine points.

  “NBA totals is one of the easiest things to win at for a bettor and one of the hardest things to book as a bookmaker,” he said. “There’s so much volatility (in NBA totals). Not only do you have to pinpoint the right number to book, but if you move it a point it is not really going to deter the betting on that side. You really need to move it two points or four points (to start receiving two-way action). So sometimes you see eight or nine point moves and all that does is open yourself up to a bigger middle. “When you start dealing with numbers in the 200s, it is extremely difficult to make a solid number. The difference between a total of 212 and 216 is not that big. If you see a game move two or three points, that’s a pretty big move for a side. If you see it move three points on a total, that’s not even significant. They almost all move at least three points in the totals.”

  Even though betting on sides is a losing proposition for most, there are plenty of bettors who consistently beat the house. The NBA is the No. 3 most popular sport for most sportsbooks after pro and college football. Most bookies agree that there’s a similar ratio of professionals and public bettors playing the NBA that there is in football. And just like in football – where a small percentage of the betting public comes out ahead – there are many who win money by betting sides and totals for pro hoops.

  One of the biggest factors in successfully handicapping sides is paying close attention to injuries, according to Scucci.

  “The majority of making lines for the NBA is knowing who is going to be starting and playing and who is not,” he said. “Certain players are just so critical to the game. Every team has one key player that is worth at least three to five points. It is more a matter of who is going to be on the floor than it is just taking statistics from the previous games because you might take the last 10 games that a team has played and try to use that as a basis for a number and then realize that those last 10 games were played without (a key player). It’s like handicapping two completely different teams.”

  One example of this is last Friday’s Orlando/New Jersey game. Magic superstar Tracy McGrady was listed as a game-time decision due to an injury. While most books decided against posting a number on this game until they knew if McGrady would play or not, some released the game at Orlando +12. According to Scucci, this line would have been Orlando +10 with McGrady and +15 without him. Books who released the game at +12 were setting a number that was two or three points off regardless of the star player’s status. McGrady ended up playing the game and the Magic lost by more than 20, but in situations like this some books expose themselves by posting soft lines.

  Public teams are also a factor in betting the NBA, as they are with college and pro football, and most of the major team sports. The Lakers are the biggest of the public teams and the books tend to shade them or add extra points to the line in order to draw action to the opposing team, especially in nationally televised games. Teams that are hot also tend to be shaded.

  “The NBA is streaky,” said Scucci. “Sometimes teams go on eight or 10-game winning streaks. You will see a little more shading when teams are running hot and playing well. Sometimes (teams) will go into a little bit of a skid and they are not playing well so there is some shading going on in the lines.”

  “The Lakers are the biggest public team in recent years and their woes this season have been well documented and they sit 26th (against the spread),” added Gillespie. “Memphis is a team that has been on the opposite spectrum (bettors have liked to go against them) and they are in the playoff race and have the 4th best record ATS. I think bettors are learning to look at each game in more detail and not just bet the favorites or against the perennial cellar dwellers.”

Source: www.DocSports.com