Trying to get an edge
and keep your money in Caribbean Poker (a.k.a. Caribbean
Stud) is no small feat. The house has a solid edge backed
up by a couple rules that will prove frustrating if you
play for very long or for serious money.
The Truth of the Game
Despite its name, Caribbean Poker is a table game, more
akin to Blackjack than Poker. But don't think that
Caribbean provides the same opportunities for the shrewd
player that Blackjack does, 'cause it most certainly
does not. The house has a solid 5.2% edge over the
player and that's close to the worst odds you'll find
in the casino. (See The Wizard of Odds Caribbean Strategy
for a different perspective on these odds). As to its
relation to Poker, the only thing they have in common
is that Caribbean uses the Poker hands for scoring.
There are only three decisions a player needs to make
in Caribbean Poker. The first is how much to bet. The
second is whether to Raise or Fold after the dealer's
one-card flop. And the third is whether take the Side
(a.k.a. Progressive) Bet.
Betting
There are a few factors in this game that recommend the
smart player place small bets. The first is the house
edge which there is simply no getting around and in
the long run that means you're going to lose money.
Better to lose small than big, no? The second is that
most Caribbean tables limit the payout. You may bet
$100 a hand and Raise your $200 and think you've hit
a $6,000 jackpot when you come up with 4-of-a-Kind
with its 20-1 payout. But if the Maximum Payout at
your table is $5,000 then that's all you're going to
get. So know your table's Max and bet accordingly.
Basic Strategy
Simply put, the basic strategy in Caribbean Poker is
to Raise on A-K-J-8-3 or better and Fold otherwise.
That is called the "beacon hand" and it's
the lowest break-even hand in the game. While this
won't make you a long-term winner, it will help slow
your losses. It's the paying hands, a pair or better,
that will net you the good wins. Trouble is that the
dealer must qualify (A-K) in order for you to get the
real payoffs and those opportunities are annoyingly
infrequent in Caribbean Poker. More on this later.
If you've spent any time looking around, you'll know
that there are many varieties and variations of this
strategy. Using them will help you shave the house edge
by teeny amounts, but they're hardly worth the effort.
Even if you played the mathematically optimal strategy
you'd only improve over the basic strategy by a few tenths
of a point. Is it worth it? On paper maybe, but the bottom
line is that you're playing a losing game so getting
deep into it in order to shave a couple tenths is an
effort of dubious worth.
Side Bets
In most of the Caribbean Poker games I've played online
there's a little meter running showing you the amount
of cash in the Progressive Pot. The idea is that for
a $1 Side Bet you'll have a crack at some or all of
that Pot if you win a hand with a Flush or better.
Guess what, it's a sucker bet with the house edge around
22% or more. The gurus say don't do it, and if you
must do it, wait until the Pot is $150,000 or better.
Don't worry, you'll be losing your money fast enough
in Caribbean Poker to have any need to speed up the
process by placing Side Bets.
The Killer in Caribbean Poker
In my opinion there is one rule in Caribbean Poker that
needs very close examination by the would-be player.
The fact that the dealer must qualify with an A-K or
better before the player gets a proper payout on a
winning hand hangs over the game like a black cloud.
Let's dream a little and assume that every hand you
get beats the dealer. Only 54% of the time will the
dealer qualify and that means that 46% of the time
you'll only get paid for your Ante bet at 1-1 no matter
how good your cards are. Let's make this a little clearer
with examples taken from recent play experiences of
mine.
Let's say you're playing $10 a hand, you pull a Pair
of 4's , and Raise. If the dealer qualifies with an A-K,
you win and get paid out at the 1-1 odds on both the
Ante and the Raise, pulling back $30 on the hand. But
if the dealer failed to qualify you only get paid on
your Ante at 1-1. No big deal you say? Let's take another
look.
Same $10 hand but you pull Four-of-a-Kind
and Raise. Needless to say, in real Poker this hand
would probably
set you up for a serious win. Even in Caribbean you'll
rake back $410 because of the 20-1 payout on Four-of-a-Kind,
but if and only if the dealer qualifies. But if the dealer
doesn't qualify (again, 46% of the time) do you know
what you win? $10 because of the 1-1 Ante Payout, and
that's it. It could've been a Royal Flush and all you'd
get is that $10. "Heads I win, Tails you lose" is
what this sounds like to me.
Where's the Beef?
By now you've probably gathered that I'm not much of
a Caribbean Poker fan. In fact, I pretty much agree
with the experts when they say it's a mindless game
with terrible odds. The question then is why is it
popular at all? I think the answer lies somewhere in
the way the game plays. You're sitting there, losing
most of the time and on the rare occasion when you
get a good hand and the dealer has qualified, you get
a nice payout. You anted $10, using the Four-of-a-Kind
example above, and pulled back $410. Not bad, and you
kind of want to bet again, right?
I think this follows what I call
The Pain Rule, named after what an old friend of mine
said when I asked him
what he liked about long-distance running. "It feels
so good to stop". You feel so relieved when the
pain is over that you think you actually enjoyed doing
the thing in the first place. In Caribbean you lose so
often, or rather the dealer failed to qualify so you
could win, that it feels great when you actually do rake
in a real payoff. Pick your poison.
