Making The Betting Line
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    News | Making The Betting Line

 
   One often hears about the time and effort bookmakers put into making betting lines. The truth is bettors set the lines, not bookmakers. Yes, it’s true someone must set an initial line for the process to begin. However, few bookmakers are willing to roll up their sleeves and actually set opening lines.

   LAS VEGAS - Even the sharpest bookmakers know they must move their opening lines dramatically as soon as sharp bettors start attacking the lines. Most books don’t even bother to try setting lines. They wait for the opening lines to settle and then copy them down the board.

   Some typically do not even attempt to shade the lines a half-point here and there. In fact, most bookmakers would be completely lost if they actually had to set their own lines in a vacuum. Their idea of setting lines is to accurately copy their competitors.

   I cannot tell you how many times I’ve heard a book tell me they were working on setting their lines and will have them up in the next hour. Then, one hour later when “their” lines are posted, they are a carbon copy of CRIS.

   Every now and then a sports book does set a line that is way off the marketplace. When this happens, it is always a mistake, not an opinion.

   For example, it is not unusual for a sloppy sports book to occasionally make a mistake and perhaps post a three-point favorite as a three-point dog. However, you will never see them line the game at one!

   Some books say they will open lines with an opinion. Well, one medium bet into their opinion and the book often has its opinion crumble faster than stale cake.

   A great example of the entire bookmaking process occurred during the recently completed NFL playoffs when the Stardust opened the Cincinnati Bengals as a three-point favorite against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Bettors quickly recognized a bogus opener and made Pittsburgh the favorite.

   The same thing happened with Pinnacle’s NCAA opening lines. Pinnacle opened the N.C. Wilmington/George Washington game with a total of 127. The bettors quickly moved the total to 132.

   I cannot tell you how many times I’ve heard “experts” talk about books setting “trap lines” trying to trick you into betting a certain side. Further, some “experts” think the opening line actually impacts the closing line. This is complete nonsense.

   It is important to note that the very best and sharpest books do take positions, shade their numbers and make much more money by doing so. However, these books are exceptions to the rule, and their line differences are usually very similar to the overall marketplace. They will sometimes shade the line a half-point on select games.

   For the most part, bettors wager into the opening numbers and set the overall line. Anyone who thinks otherwise does not understand the current betting marketplace.

Making The Betting Line
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