One often hears about the
time and effort bookmakers put into making betting lines.
The truth is bettors set the lines, not bookmakers. Yes,
it’s true someone must set an initial line for the process
to begin. However, few bookmakers are willing to roll
up their sleeves and actually set opening lines.
LAS VEGAS - Even the sharpest bookmakers
know they must move their opening lines dramatically
as soon as sharp
bettors start attacking the lines. Most books don’t even
bother to try setting lines. They wait for the opening
lines to settle and then copy them down the board.
Some typically do not even attempt to shade the lines
a half-point here and there. In fact, most bookmakers
would be completely lost if they actually had to set
their own lines in a vacuum. Their idea of setting lines
is to accurately copy their competitors.
I cannot tell you how many times I’ve
heard a book tell me they were working on setting their
lines and will have them up in the next hour. Then, one
hour later when “their” lines are posted, they are a carbon copy of CRIS.
Every now and then a sports book does set a line that
is way off the marketplace. When this happens, it is
always a mistake, not an opinion.
For example, it is not unusual for a sloppy sports book
to occasionally make a mistake and perhaps post a three-point
favorite as a three-point dog. However, you will never
see them line the game at one!
Some books say they will open lines with an opinion.
Well, one medium bet into their opinion and the book
often has its opinion crumble
faster than stale cake.
A great example of the entire bookmaking process occurred
during the recently completed NFL playoffs when the Stardust
opened the
Cincinnati Bengals as a three-point favorite against
the Pittsburgh
Steelers. Bettors quickly recognized a bogus opener
and made Pittsburgh the favorite.
The same thing happened with Pinnacle’s
NCAA opening lines. Pinnacle opened the N.C. Wilmington/George
Washington game with a total of 127. The bettors quickly
moved the total to 132.
I cannot tell you how many times I’ve
heard “experts” talk about books setting “trap lines” trying to trick you into betting a certain side. Further, some “experts” think the opening line actually impacts the closing line. This is complete nonsense.
It is important to note that the very best and sharpest
books do take positions, shade their numbers and make
much more money by doing so. However, these books are
exceptions to the rule, and their line differences are
usually very similar to the overall marketplace. They
will sometimes shade the line a half-point on select
games.
For the most part, bettors wager into the opening numbers
and set the overall line. Anyone who thinks otherwise
does not understand
the current betting marketplace.